CIS countries possess extensive natural resources and rely heavily on revenues from primary commodity exports, in particular petroleum and natural gas. We use Kazakhstan’s dependence on revenues from the oil sector to demonstrate commodity producer vulnerability to external commodity price fluctuations. The goal of this paper is to examine the nature of the relationship between real GDP, fiscal revenues, real exchange rate, price level, and oil prices. We employ Bayesian approach to time series data for the period 2000–2015. We find evidence of significant effect of oil prices on Kazakhstani economy where one of the key channels playing a role in the effect of oil prices on real activity is related to the real effective exchange rate. Additionally, results of this research indicate that one possible channel for oil price shocks to affect the real exchange rate is through the upward pressure on domestic price level.
Working paper info
Oil and Growth Challenge in Kazakhstan
C. Macro, financial markets and open macroeconomy